Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition XIX

Posted on May 24, 2013 by Tim Swanson

Anecdotatly it is hard to say what direction luxury is heading since it is such a large segment now. Government crackdown on big Party dinners still in effect, not sure if government officials want to be made an example of (including receiving traditional gifts like watches).

Has luxury peaked in mainland China? from South China Morning Post
Chinese consumers’ demand for luxuries growing: survey from Xinhua
Picking up a loaf of bread and a Gucci bag from China Daily
‘He Ain’t Ugly, He’s My Robot’ – Creative Use of Garbage in China Results in One Man’s Robo Pal from Rocket News 24
Desperate Chinese College Student Takes Doctor Hostage from China Smack
Seeking Help — For China’s Labor Market from The Wall Street Journal
How China’s Push for World-Class Universities Is Undermining Collegiality from The Chronicle of Higher Education
Forget the Headlines: Chinese Buying Big in US from CNBC (cheap houses)
After Cadmium Scare, Hong Kong Rice Worth Jail Risk? from The Wall Street Journal (bought some imported rice from Cambodia)
Hershey targeting 7.5bn yuan Chinese milk candy market from Shanghaiist
5,000 city users to put 4G services to the test from Shanghai Daily (but still no access to the other internet)
An Investment Company Tries Its Hand at Farming from Caixin
Local Governments Rush to Build Airports from The Economic Observer (how will they pay this back if their is oversaturation?)
China Development Bank Calls Meeting as Bundled SME Bond Sours from Bloomberg
CNY 3.5 Tln of LGFVs to Come Due in China in Two or Three Years from Caijing (will banks be forced to roll the loans over and over again?)
Hidden Bad Loans Raising Ponzi Risk from Caijing
China Tightens Rules on Bond Issuance from The Wall Street Journal
Alibaba Intending to Dig Deep for E-commerce Gold from Caixin
China offers India a “handshake across the Himalayas” from Reuters ($100 billion in bilateral trade by 2015)

Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition XVIII

Posted on May 21, 2013 by Tim Swanson

Another relatively slow news week. Big skillset mismatch with new college grads, sympathize with (unemployed) former students at the colleges I taught at. Thanks to Xiao for a couple links.

Disruptions: Helper Robots Are Steered, Tentatively, to Care for the Aging from The New York Times (this is relevant to the aging population in China as well)
India-China Agreements: No. 1, Buffalo Meat from The Wall Street Journal (beat the US to market access)
Li Keqiang discusses trade, border disputes with Indian prime minister from Shanghaiist
iPad obsession hurting child’s development, warns expert from People’s Daily (will this impact apple’s or other tech firm revenue earnings? probably not in short run, if ever)
Inflation Deflated? Evaluating the ‘Alibaba Index’ from The Wall Street Journal (uses a different methodology, not apples to apples)
First-tier cities barely livable, report says from China Daily (believable, i have worn a mask daily this past month, air has been quite poor this year in Shanghai which is actually “less worse” than BJ or GZ)
Amid Austerity, A Lush New Temple to Luxury Wines in Shanghai from The Wall Street Journal
The world’s tallest building will be in the middle of an empty field in China from Quartz (what will the vacancy rate be like in 2 years? who is financing it?)
China’s red-hot property market shows no signs of slowing from CNN|Money (while environmental quality might be poor, many people from the countryside dream of working in “the big city” — deleterious effects for arbitrarily calculating what the rate should be for property)
Art in China: On script and cutting edge? from CNN
An Estimate of Excess Borrowing by Chinese Corporations from Peterson Institute for International Economics
Chinese graduates face toughest job market ever from Financial Times (7 million new college grads, only 30% have signed contracts for a job)

Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition XVII

Posted on May 18, 2013 by Tim Swanson

Slow news week, pretty bearish too. There are a few bright spots. Thanks to Larry M for sending in a couple of the stories:

Kingsoft Establishes New Chinese Network Cloud Security Subsidiary from China Tech News
How AXA Became a Player in China from The Wall Street Journal (spoke with a sales manager at AIA, see big growth opportunities due to lack of market penetration <5%)
How China Fell in Love with Fruit Ninja from Tech Rice (see it everywhere on the subway and at restaurants)
China’s Lenovo Will Launch Smartphone In Africa This Year from China Tech News
The UK’s fastest growing tourist group endures the slowest visa process from Quartz (oops, someone doesn’t want free money)
Alipay.com, 58.com Team For Used Goods Trading from China Tech News
Censors shut down Weibo accounts to crack down on rumors from Shanghaiist (good luck convincing lawoai to use your product in their countries)
Watch: Vice takes a stroll through Shanghai’s Thames Town from Shanghaiist (mentioned this in Chapter 17, still haven’t visited it yet though)
Cloud computing modernizes education in China from ZDnet
Oversight of foreign experts to improve from China Daily (doubt it will do much in short-term, so many scrubs able to forge necessary documents)
Alibaba Shows Net Profit of US$ 642 Mln in Q4 from Caixin
Alibaba’s Extravaganza from The Wall Street Journal
China ready to free capital flows? from Xinhua (i’ll believe it when i see it)
China’s debt: a crisis in the making? from CNN|Money
Zhang Yimou Investigation Sparks One-Child Debate from The Wall Street Journal (reform has been discussed since before i came to asia, doubt it’ll happen anytime soon, if ever)
Cultural Revolution Redux? Economist Under Attack from The Wall Street Journal (mao yushi, one of the most interesting, open-minded economists on the mainland)

On the ground relevant data and knowledge on the mainland

Posted on May 15, 2013 by Tim Swanson

Shanghaiist recently did a must-read interview with Shaun Rein. I had the fortune of interviewing him for my book (see Ch 4 & 13), but this new interview is even better/more detailed in my opinion.

He’s one of the few laowai that truly understands what is going on here, approaching the business atmosphere with a very balanced mindset. Check out his book and if you’re looking for a consumer research firm, he happens to manage one (CMR) as well.

Stat of the day: Inbound tourism and expats in China

Posted on May 11, 2013 by Tim Swanson

Inbound tourists who stay overnight in China:

2010: 55.7 million (source)
2011: 57.6 million (source)
2012: 58 million (source)

The number of British expats working in China has risen 18%, growing from 31,160 in 2006/07 to 38,000 in 2010/11. As of June 2012 there were about 70,000 American’s in China. There are 600,000 foreigners who are permanent residents and 220,000 foreigners legally working on the mainland.

Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition XVI

Posted on May 10, 2013 by Tim Swanson

Mostly China-related links from the past couple of weeks. Thanks to those who sent them in, see Sinocism for more:

China Names Yuan Convertibility Plan as Goal This Year from Bloomberg (believe it when i see it)
April New Loans Decline, Regulators Alert on Hidden Risks from Caijing
Alibaba’s quarterly revenues surge 80% from Financial Times
Baidu Acquires PPS for $370 Million, Claims It’s Now China’s Biggest Video Platform from Tech In Asia (i have used PPS off and on for years)
‘Baby’ Ye makes Tour history as China showcases young golf talent from CNN
The only fix for China’s managerial shortage from Financial Times
Five-year visas for foreigners on way from China Daily
One-third of Chinese adults have high blood pressure: expert from Xinhua
Top 10 attractive Chinese cities for foreigners 2012 from People’s Daily (shanghai is top, followed by beijing)
Hong Kong Lays Out Welcome Mat for More French Expats from The Wall Street Journal (foreign exchange program between FR & HK, 200 students each way)
China’s Scandal-Tainted Dairy Industry Takes a Step Forward from The Wall Street Journal
New regulation limits antibiotics’ use for patients from Shanghai Daily (antibiotics are consumed like candy here, see Ch 19)
Too Much Trust in Local Finances from The Wall Street Journal
Shanghai cooked food stores shut down over fake mutton from Reuters (not good for Yum! shareholders… and consumers in general)
Amazon Appstore officially launches in China from Shanghaiist
Brides with bling from Financial Times (weddings in India, huge spending)

Cryptocurrency in the news: X

Posted on May 8, 2013 by Tim Swanson

Probably will be awhile before I do another curated set of links specifically for Bitcoin related topics. Thanks to Vijay, Jeremy, Mike, Alex and Ben for the links:

CFTC Explores Bitcoin from CNBC (interview with commissioner Bart Chilton who doesn’t seem to like caveat emptor or liberalized risk management)
Buffett’s comments range far and wide at Berkshire Q&A from Market Watch (disses bitcoin)
US regulators eye Bitcoin supervision from Financial Times (there is already a derivatives service, MPEx)
A Push for a Bitcoin Buttonwood from The New York Times (20 guys trading BTC in union square)
“Josh took $20@120!” – Satoshi Square’s Historic Bitcoin Trading Event from Spelunk.in (more on the story about bitcoin buttonwood)
Introducing Carbon Wallet from Bitcoin Magazine
Coinbase Now Processing $15M Per Month In Bitcoin Buys and Sells from The Coinbase Blog
Bitcoin: The Newest Tool In China’s Currency War Chest from The Genesis Block
Weeks after shutdown, Bitcoin exchange customers still wait for refunds from ArsTechnica
Ben Laurie on BitCoin from BoingBoing
Coinbase Nabs $5M in Biggest Funding for Bitcoin Startup from The Wall Street Journal
Will Bitcoin adoption be driven outside the US? from Jeremy Liew
More regulation of Bitcoin is a good thing from Jeremy Liew (debatable, inevitable probably)
Lenders May Create Bitcoin Rivals, Says New Zealand Bank Group from Bloomberg (obviously they are unaware of the plethora of alternative crypto currencies that are continually created/abandoned over the past few years)
Bitcoin vs. Ben Bernanke from The Wall Street Journal

Cryptocurrency in the news: IX

Posted on May 5, 2013 by Tim Swanson

Thanks to the couple of sources who sent these in:

A Challenge to the Bitcoin Community by George Selgin (he wants to see if someone can engineer bitcoin ahead of time to be “flexible” — which is arbitrary — to be inflated or deflated when necessary to purportedly “better” manage the economy; or in other words wealth =/= money)
Bitcoin: Overview An introduction to the mechanics of bitcoins and an overview of how transactions take place from Khan Academy
My Official Withdrawal from the BitcoinATM Project by Jeff Berwick (no lawsuit?)
Bitcoin’s hyperdeflationary recession? by John Paul Koning
Infamous marketplace Silk Road brought down by DDoS attack from Wired
IRS Takes A Bite Out Of Bitcoin from Forbes (wonder how many filed 1099’s last month…)
Massive Bitcoin Business Partnership Devolves Into $75 Million Lawsuit from Gawker
Collected Quotations Of The Dread Pirate Roberts, Founder Of Underground Drug Site Silk Road And Radical Libertarian from Forbes (hardcore Rothbardian ancap, who will play him in the movie?)
Drugs, porn, and counterfeits: the market for illegal goods is booming online from The Verge (for the record, i am not endorsing any specific cryptocurrency, darknet or trafficking illicit wares)
How porn links and Ben Bernanke snuck into Bitcoin’s code from CNN (wonder when they’ll track down the perps or if it was AGITPROP)
Let’s Cut Through the Bitcoin Hype: A Hacker-Entrepreneur’s Take from Wired

Stat of the day: Consumer spending in China

Posted on May 4, 2013 by Tim Swanson

Consumer spending as a proportion of GDP:

33% in 2010. GDP total was $6.05 trillion (Xinhua)
37.7% in 2011. GDP total was $7.26 trillion (China Daily, Trading Economics)
55% in 2012.* GDP total was $8.28 trillion (China Daily, Financial Times)

*The 2012 number is debatable as some sources measure it as low as 35% yet others at 55% and even 65%. See China’s Golden Rule of Consumption by Yukon Huang and China unlocks right kind of growth from Financial Times and Chinese shoppers are thriving from Financial Times

Stat of the day: Yum! success in China

Posted on May 3, 2013 by Tim Swanson

Yum! is the parent company of several large fast-food chains including KFC and Pizza Hut — both of which are very popular in China. In terms of profit and revenue, consider the following:

Global Yum! (source: annual report)

2010 – $1.769 billion operating profit from $11.343 billion revenue
2011 – $1.815 operating profit from $12.626 billion revenue
2012 – $2.294 billion operating profit from $13.633 billion in revenue

As I mention in Chapter 16, since their first store opened in 1987, KFC now operates approximately 5,000 restaurant outlets in 700 Chinese cities and is on pace to open one new store everyday of the year – with a goal of opening 15,000 across China including 700 more in 2013.1 And despite a food scare regarding antibiotics in chicken suppliers mentioned in Chapter 3, they plan to continue this expansion.2 A large reason why they have been successful is as noted above in the HBR study: adapting to local tastes with foods such as fried dough, sweet potato buns and fishball soup. Furthermore, its parent company, Yum Brands, now operates 5,400 stores on the mainland (including Pizza Hut restaurants); more than double what it had five years ago.3 As a consequence, China now represents for over half of Yum’s operating profit and sales globally.4 In fact, in 2010, KFC China for the first time had surpassed the US market in revenue. In contrast, McDonald’s has a mere 1,464 outlets and 16% of the fast-food restaurant market share.5

Yum Brands Says The Chinese Still Love KFC from The Wall Street Journal [↩]
See Yum Brands Rebounds From Chicken Antibiotic China Scare from Bloomberg, Yum stumbles badly in China, warns on profit from Reuters and ‘Kentucky Fried China’ no more? from Reuters [↩]
Yum’s Yuck Factor in China from The Wall Street Journal [↩]
‘Kentucky Fried China’ no more? from Reuters [↩]
KFC’s Big Game of Chicken from BusinessWeek [↩]

Cryptocurrency in the news: VIII

Posted on May 2, 2013 by Tim Swanson

Some odds and ends of BTC today:

Chris Dixon Plans On Investing In More Bitcoin Startups, Says More Entrepreneurs Are Getting Involved from TechCrunch (good luck… how many will be able to get fully funded before FinCEN hammer comes down?)
IAm Nassim Taleb, author of Antifragile, AMA from Reddit (briefly mentions bitcoin)
Zerocoin: Anonymous Distributed E-Cash from Bitcoin by Miers et. al. (the newly published academic paper behind the concept)
Bitcoin believers hoping their faith will pay off from Boston Globe (how many are betting the farm?)
Living On Bitcoin For A Week: The Journey Begins by Kashmir Hill (reminds me of DotComGuy from back in 2000 as well as the more recent dude, Benjamin Robbins, who only used the Samsung Note this past year and didn’t touch a laptop or tablet during that time)
BitCoin Is Gold 2.0: Venture Capitalist from CNBC
One Bitcoin by the numbers: Is there still profit to be made? from ExtremeTech (the CPU is irrelevant, you could use a single core chip from 10 years ago without impacting performance)
E-Sports League Stuffed Bitcoin Mining Code Inside Client Software from Slashdot (doubt this is the first or last time this will occur)
Digital cash replacement from Royal Canadian Mint in the works from Toronto Star (one of the criticisms of cryptocurrencies is that they lack any “inherent” value — what then are these digitized money substitutes? if you do not think they are valuable, feel free to send them to me… See also: The value of cryptocurrencies)

Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition XV

Posted on May 2, 2013 by Tim Swanson

Nearly all China-related business news. Check out Sinocism for more (still too busy to re-curate them). Check out the first interview with Shaun, great info.

‘Protectionism is a fact of life in China’: Interview with Shaun Rein from Shanghaiist (great interview)
Sina sells Weibo stake to Alibaba for $586m from Financial Times
Chinese Renminbi overtakes Russian Rouble to reach #13 as a World Payments Currency from SWIFT (still a mere 0.63% marketshare)
Chinese Social Media Travel Website Gains USD15 Million Investment from China Tech News (mafengwo.cn)
US Exports to China by State 2003-2012 from The US-China Business Council (unsurprisingly lots of agriculture, machinery, computer tech)
China becomes biggest PC market in 2012 – IHS report from BBC
Rethinking Luxury Car Brands as Chinese Military Changes Rules from The Wall Street Journal
The only fix for China’s managerial shortage from Financial Times (opportunities to train new managers)
Taiwan’s Hon Hai To Build New Plant In Indonesia from China Tech News (Foxconn looking for new markets and cheaper wages?)
HTG Explains: How the Great Firewall of China Works from How To Geek (it’s an okay explanation, see Ch 20 for more references)

Mark DeWeaver: Why China Invests in Windfarms It Can’t Use

Posted on May 2, 2013 by Tim Swanson

Yesterday, Mark DeWeaver did an interview with U.S. News & World Reports regarding his recently published book on China: Animal Spirits with Chinese Characteristics.

Mark wrote the Foreword to my book and is the founder of Quantrarian Capital Management, a fund in DC.

Below is the interview:

Also viewable at Google Hangout.

Stat of the day: GM car sales in China

Posted on May 1, 2013 by Tim Swanson

China has been the largest vehicle market globally since it overtook the US in 2009. GM, which has a partnership with SAIC, continues to sell enormous amounts of vehicles as well. Below are some annual figures to give you an idea of the volume & revenue.

Overall GM globally

2010 – $4.7 billion annual profit from $135.59 billion revenue (source)
2011 – $7.6 billion annual profit from $150.28 billion revenue (source)
2012 – $4.9 billion annual profit from $152.3 billion in revenue (source)

GM in China specifically

2010 – Sold 2,351,610 vehicles in China (28.8% increase YoY) (source)
2011 – Sold 2,547,171 vehicles in China (8.3% increase YoY) (source)
2012 – Sold 2,836,128 vehicles in China (11.3% increase YoY) (source)

As I mention in Chapter 1, approximately 19.3 million automobiles were sold in China in 2012.1 By 2015 it is estimated that the Chinese car market will be larger than the US, Japan and Germany combined.2 3 4 And by 2016, McKinsey & Company – a global management consulting company – estimates that China will surpass the US as top luxury car market.5 There are now 240 million vehicles on the mainland and 20 million more vehicles will be sold this year.6 Furthermore, according to Michael Dunne, an Asian-based car market consultant, “[of] the projected 2.3 million American-branded cars Chinese will buy this year [2012], an astonishing 96% will be made in China.”7 And this growth rate has largely occurred in less than a decade. For example, in 2004, the market for Land Rover vehicles on the mainland was a mere 1% yet has subsequently surged to 20% of Land Rovers total sales last year.8 9

Vehicle sales overtake Europe in 2012 from China Daily and 2012: Slowing growth, maturing market from China Daily [↩]
An estimated 20.65 million automobiles are expected to be sold in 2013. See China 2013 Auto Sales May Accelerate This Year to Top 20 Million from Bloomberg, China Slowing Auto Sales Still Eclipse U.S.-Japan-Germany: Cars from Bloomberg and China’s vehicle sales remain in doldrums fromFinancial Times [↩]
One of the issues facing policy makers is traffic congestion. Each city handles it differently, some auctioning off license plates to residents. The cost of license plates has increased as cities have become denser and more affluent. In Shanghai for example, in the recent license plate auction held in January 2013, the average price for a plate was $12,000. See Shanghai’s Newest Luxury Item: The License Plate from The Wall Street Journal and Shanghai licence plates ‘precious as gold,’ says vice mayor from South China Morning Post [↩]
Used car sales are increasing faster than new car sales on the mainland and may be an opportunity for foreign auto dealers with experience in this segment. 4.8 million used cars were sold in China in 2012 compared with 15.5 million new cars. Used car sales are expected to double to 10 million in the next three years. For comparison, in the US the used car market is four times the size of new cars. See Coming of age: China’s used car market outpaces new sales growth from Reuters [↩]
China to surpass US as top luxury car market: study from Agence France-Presse [↩]
China Vehicle Population Hits 240 Million as Smog Engulfs Cities from Bloomberg [↩]
‘Imported From Detroit’ Is a Good Idea in China, if Only… from The Wall Street Journal [↩]
Modern facilities, global reach for Jaguar Land Rover from China Daily [↩]
Many other luxury cars continue to sell well on the mainland. For example, in 2011 Chinese consumers overtook the US in purchases of Rolls Royce vehicles; although in 2012 US consumers retook the “torch” which may again be handed off in 2013. See U.S. Overtakes China as World’s No. 1 Buyer of Rolls-Royce from The Wall Street Journal [↩]

Cryptocurrency in the news: VII

Posted on April 30, 2013 by Tim Swanson

Thanks to Ben, Jeff, Koen, Cedric, Jon and others who sent in links.

What are the chances for a new Bitcoin exchange? by Jeremy Liew (after FinCEN begins prosecution I think the chances of starting a brand new Mt. Gox-style exchange in the US will fall close to zero in the near to medium future. there may be ways to bootstrap an exchange service to existing banks, but it is hard to imagine any enterprise that will find the necessary capital to scale a new infrastructure in the US due to regulatory risks.)
Bitcoin or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Crypto from Udemy (free MOOC)
What equity markets can learn from bitcoin and ripple by JP Koning (ripple does not work the way he thinks it can, it doesn’t have a distributed order book and HFT is not the enemy.)
What if all the bitcoin exchanges were shut down? by Max Keiser (they may be shut down, but i don’t see how one organization can conjure the “correct” price. all the Bitcoin Foundation would be doing in his mental exercise is arbitrarily defining a price, which is no different than say, planners trying to rationalize any kind of economic sector. i’m not sure he quite understands how prices arise and/or are continually ‘discovered’)
Canada to tax Bitcoin transactions – TV from Russia Today (hard to see how this can be fully implemented, could probably be levied on merchants who exchange BTC/C$)
The future of Bitcoin—according to BitInstant’s Charlie Shrem from The Daily Dot
Amagi Metals – Largest Selection of Gold & Silver for Bitcoins from BTC talk (not endorsing this, just showing one alternative method)
This Libertarian Presidential Hopeful Wants Your Bitcoin Donations from Mother Jones (how will the FEC react?)
BitCoin, Or BetaCoin? What The Venture Capitalists Are Thinking from Zero Hedge
Let’s Talk Bitcoin episode 2 (podcast about BTC, buttercoins mentioned too)
Who Killed PayPal? by Radley Balko (an oldie but goodie, possible foreshadowing of what will happen to BTC and the big exchanges)
Direct use value of Bitcoin by Oleg Andreev (see see also the value of cryptocurrencies)
Of bubbles and Bitcoins by Hugo Price (I take it from his last few sentences that he is not a fan of communicating and talking on the internets, because it is not “real” or “material.”)
Mish Interview with ‘Bitcoin Jesus’ by Mish Shedlock (don’t think he full understands BTC but still interesting interview)

Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition XIV

Posted on April 28, 2013 by Tim Swanson

A few links regarding China. Read Sinocism for more (been too busy to peruse it). Thanks to James for some links.

Verizon report: China behind 96% of all cyber-espionage data breaches from Network World (orly? skeptical of FUD)
China’s Organic Food Cooperatives Must Overcome Trust Deficit from Tea Leaf Nation (source tells me it is very hard for foreign companies to export organic food into china due to new local protectionism)
Is there a Chinese housing bubble? from Shanghaiist (interview with Christopher Dillon, author of Landed China)
UNSW woos Chinese students by accepting Gaokao scores for admissions from Xinhua (smart way to get Chinese students to matriculate to your overseas school)
What are the hardest languages to learn for English speakers? from Voxy (infographic. korean is easier than Chinese… it uses an alphabet)
Important Clarity on a Controversial Chinese Bank Product from The Wall Street Journal (see wmp explained)
With One New App, Every Sina Weibo Post Can Be Easily Translated into English from Tech In Asia
China NGOs turn to WeChat to aid quake rescue from South China Morning Post
HP Launches Moonshot Server In China from China Tech News (get in before the wave of 64-bit ARM chips arrive this winter…)
Breeding a Generation of Angry Web Users from The Wall Street Journal (but what can they actually do…)
Creating Chinese Couture from The Wall Street Journal
Iron Man 3 to have special China version, additional Chinese characters from Shanghaiist (one world, two cinemas?)
California’s ‘Chinese Dream’ from The Atlantic
China Seeks Soft Power Influence in U.S. Through CCTV from NPR (but as bill bishop has noted, who pays attention to this “old” or traditional media outlets when everything is now digital and social?)

Cryptocurrency in the news: VI

Posted on April 28, 2013 by Tim Swanson

Thanks to Vijay, Koen, Jeff and others for the links.

PayPal Sees $20 Billion in Mobile Transactions: Video from Bloomberg (discusses BTC at 2:50 into video)
Ron Paul on Gold: No One Knows Value; I’m Buying from Bloomberg (discusses BTC at 6:12 in)
Bitcoin by George Selgin (his opinion about BTC, professor and author of Good Money)
Speaking On Liberty: Jeffrey Tucker – The Rise of Digital Currency from Liberty Minded
Just lost 160 BTC from address managed with blockchain.info MyWallet from reddit (happened to a friend as well)
Crypto St – Advanced Trading Platform (beta)
AMD destroys Nvidia at Bitcoin mining, can the gap ever be bridged? from ExtremeTech (but there is now a CUDAminer for LTC)
Fincen’s New Regulations Are Choking Bitcoin Entrepreneurs from American Banker (foreboding, not cranks either. see follow-up comments at btc talk too)
Bitcoin takes a big step into the mainstream with support from Expensify from CITE World (3rd party converter)
Obama’s Fmr. Chief Economic Advisor On Bitcoin’s Usefulness: “Hahahaha. ROTFL” from TechCrunch
Inside the Race to Build the World’s Fastest Bitcoin Miner from Wired (how powerful? see user 67117 on BTC Guild — it is ASICMiner)
Bitcoin: world’s fastest growing currency migrates off the internet from The Guardian (in berlin)
Virtual currencies threaten to go viral from Financial Times (very stilted, loaded title)
Bitcoin’s real-world problem: Virtual currency facing bank backlash in Canada from The Windsor Star (probably combination of FinCEN/FATCA)
I Survived the Bitcoin Bubble from Slate (same guy who bought $1k a few weeks ago)
TransferWise closes down: Notice to Bitcoin users (because of FinCEN report and potential prosecution, the hammer will come down soon on other money exchangers in North America)
Study: 45 percent of Bitcoin exchanges end up closing from ArsTechnica (some due to facilitating Silk Road exchanges, get out before prosecution hammer)
Could Bitcoin Be the Money of the Future? by Detlev Schlichter (author of Paper Money Collapse)

Introducing Matt Garner’s cooking show: 宅男做饭

Posted on April 27, 2013 by Tim Swanson

A good friend of mine, Matt Garner (the same one mentioned throughout my book), has begun broadcasting his new Chinese cooking show. You can visit his website, Zhainanzuofan (literally “man stays at home cooking”) and on Weibo.

Congrats on a job well-done!

Cryptocurrency in the news: V

Posted on April 23, 2013 by Tim Swanson

Thanks to Vijay, Ben, Jeff and others:

What did Satoshi say on economics and money? from reddit (after reading a few hundred posts it is pretty clear that Satoshi probably lived abroad many years and may in fact be a Japanese-American [or Canadian]. from a professional perspective, after having worked in and out of the EFL industry for several years it is pretty easy to tell if a writer is a native speaker or not. also, i recently asked a Japanese-American friend to look over the posts, that was his opinion as well)
A simple solution to credit card fraud, part 4: A primer on elliptic curves from Rondam Ramblings (couple months old, but good info about crypto)
BTCs from Foseti (slightly optimistic take on whether cryptocurrency’s will end up complying with future regulations)
Aaron Lasher on Bitcoin Security, Interviewed by Jeffrey Tucker
The Pirate Bay Now Accepts Bitcoin Donations from TorrentFreak
FR33 Aid to use bitcoin for donations from The Picket Line
A poll was conducted of global profs by Chicago Booth School of Business — “A bitcoin’s value derives solely from the belief that others will want to use it for trade, which implies that its purchasing power is likely to fluctuate over time to a degree that will limit its usefulness.” (see results here)
Largest bitcoin exchange, Mt. Gox, ‘throttles’ trading to tame price swings from ComputerWorld

Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition XIII

Posted on April 23, 2013 by Tim Swanson

A few links regarding China. Read Sinocism for more (been too busy to peruse it). This past week was the annual Shanghai Auto Show, hence all the cars news. Thanks to Kevin for a couple of the links.

China’s Top Apple Hackers Launch a Pirate iOS App Store from Tech In Asia
Thousands of Thumbs Down for Chinese Red Cross from The Wall Street Journal
Amid Electric Push, China’s Cars Get Bigger from The Wall Street Journal
$300 Million Scholarship for Study in China Signals a New Focus from The New York Times
SOE Salaries Outstrip Profits from The Economic Observer (who ultimately pays for this subsidy then? tax producers which then depresses consumption)
Honda’s Ito: Chinese Drivers Don’t Want Green Cars from The Wall Street Journal
Luxury Car Makers Brace for Slower China Sales from The Wall Street Journal
VW takes aim at China to fix budget car Achilles heel from Reuters

Cryptocurrency in the news: IV

Posted on April 20, 2013 by Tim Swanson

Thanks to Vijay, Jeff, Bryan and Aaron for a few of these links:

WikiLeaks publishes five-hour conversation between Eric Schmidt and Julian Assange from The Verge (Assange is very articulate in terms of the ramifications of Bitcoin/cryptocurrencies)
Which Makes More Money: Mining Bitcoins or Writing About Mining Bitcoins? from The Adventures of Accordion Guy in the Twenty-First Century
Why Bitcoin is Here to Stay: Q&A with Jerry Brito from Reason
Bitcoin bubble re-inflates from CNNMoney
Eight Bitcoin inventions that will change the world from Real Virtual Currency
Is Bitcoin Mining a Real-World Environmental Problem? from Slashdot (compared with fiat currencies that require cutting down forests, smelting metals and creating inks… doubtful)
Bitcoins in Argentina from Bitcoinfilm (documentary about BTC exchange with Argentinian pesos)
Bitcoin Dreams Endure to Savers Crushed by CPI: Argentina Credit from Bloomberg
The Well Deserved Fortune of Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin creator, Visionary and Genius from Bitslog (see more discussion here, analysis suggests someone has 1 million BTC)
Bitcoin Plunge from The Colbert Report
Bitcoin Explained by Niko Carvalho

Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition XII

Posted on April 20, 2013 by Tim Swanson

Below are a list of mostly business-related links from the past two weeks (mostly about China). Thanks to Peter and Sinocism for a few of them.

China Releases Grim Cancer Statistics from Businessweek
Announcing China Development Brief’s New Chinese NGO Directory and Special Report from NGOs in China
Special Issue on Chinese Science Fiction from Depauw Science Fiction Studies (mentioned in footnote 5 in Ch 2, thanks again Geoffrey)
Asian Megacities, Free and Unfree from City Journal
Paid audience members turn in best performances on Chinese TV from Want China Times
Yum’s China Sales Tumble 13% in March from Bloomberg
State broadcaster CCTV slams anti-Japanese war dramas from South China Morning Post
Qiaodan Sports Countersues Michael Jordan from The Wall Street Journal (funny and ridiculous at the same time, see footnote 10)
For Empty Offices in China, It’s Location, Location, Location from The Wall Street Journal
Apartments near top Beijing school selling for almost 100,000 yuan per sq metre from Shanghaiist
Why Leave Job in Beijing? To Breathe from The Wall Street Journal
Furs fly as Chinese consumers drive boom in U.S. mink farming from Reuters
Microsoft Innovation Center Heads For Chinese Tropical Destination from China Tech News
Xiaomi CEO Bin Lin aims to ship 15 million superphones in 2013, expand sales beyond Asia from Engadget
‘Chinese Google’ Opens Artificial-Intelligence Lab in Silicon Valley from Wired
With China’s Travel Sector Possibly Depressed, What Will Qunar.com Do With Investment Money? from China Tech News
China local authority debt ‘out of control’ from Financial Times
Policy Revision Is More Lenient on Lending to Financing Platforms from Caixin
Baby food stockpiling in China shields Danone from deteriorating European demand from Quartz
Underwriter caught up in stock scandal from China Daily
Kaifu Lee: Rumors of Weibo’s Death Are Exaggerated from Tech In Asia
LVMH Falls in Paris as Fashion Sales Gain Slowest Since 2009 from Bloomberg
Masters 2013: Guan Tianlang goes back to homework after wonder week from The Guardian
Juhuasuan.com Is Alibaba’s Latest Foray Into Hong Kong And Taiwan from China Tech News
China’s Theaters May Soon Show Tarantino Film from The New York Times
CICC’s Nicholson Becomes Chinese National from The Wall Street Journal (not quite, HK SAR passport)
Zopo C2 embraces Aliyun OS, boasts 5-inch 1080p display, 5MP front camera and a low price from Engadget (dear alibaba, leaching off of the open source community is a real d-bag move)
27 Signs You Were Raised By Asian Immigrant Parents from BuzzFeed (very funny because it’s true)
NCR Signs Chinese Bank Agreement For Tech Services from China Tech News
Appearances Could Deceive at Shanghai Auto Show from The Wall Street Journal
Chinese restaurants, industry develop taste for robots from Xinhua (month old but still interesting addition to Chapter 7 info)
The Dark Side: Skin Colour and K-pop from Seoul Beats (to better understand consumer behavior and preference for porcelain skin)
China’s booming fake muni bonds from Financial Times
China Factories Moving In Droves To Cambodia/Vietnam/Myanmar/Malaysia. NOT. from China Law Blog
World Snooker Championship 2013: Ding Junhui feels pressure from BBC

Stat of the day: internet speeds in China

Posted on April 19, 2013 by Tim Swanson

As mentioned in Chapter 9, according to their Q3 2012 speed survey, ChinaCache, the largest domestic content delivery network (CDN), notes that while the overall speeds are a little slower than previous speed rankings, Shanghai currently leads the country in average speeds at roughly 3.44 Mb/s and Beijing is 10^th at around 2.5 Mb/s.1 2 Akamai Technologies (a global content delivery network provider) ranked China’s average internet-connection speed at 94^th globally, at 1.6 Mb/s.3

Here is a new estimate from Qihoo 360 (in mb/s):

Via Tech In Asia

ChinaCache Releases Third Quarter 2012 China Internet Connection Speed Rankings from China Web Report [↩]
For comparison, the average download bandwidth in the US is 11.6 Mb/s. See International Broadband Data Report (Third) from the Federal Communications Commission [↩]
China’s ‘Wall’ Hits Business from The Wall Street JournalI [↩]

Cryptocurrency in the news: III

Posted on April 17, 2013 by Tim Swanson

Thanks to Isaac, Vijay, Raffael, Aaron and other nameless ones.

Digital Drills: The Monster Machines that Mine Bitcoin from Gizmodo
Bumps in the Bitcoin Road by Jeff Tucker (jeff is a friend, executive editor of LFB and highlights some of the hurdles like volatility)
Bitcoin Dreams Endure to Savers Crushed by CPI: Argentina Credit from Bloomberg
3D Printed NFC enabled Litecoin Simulacra from Bitmit (i wonder if they’re intentionally making it look aesthetically like silver just to fit into the meme)
Bitcoin Obliterates “The State Theory Of Money” by Jon Matonis
The Bitcoin Money Myth by Frank Shostak (i like him, even quote him in my book but he’s wrong here.)
The Mises Institute is clueless about Bitcoin by Peter Šurda (most probably havent heard of bitcoin exchanges, if people are trading for BTC for other currency, goods, services — it is money. peter’s thesis is both sound and persuasive)
Bitcoin: Whatever It Is, It’s Not Money! by Steve Forbes (he couldn’t figure out how it works in 30 seconds therefore it must not be money. it’s open-sourced, decentralized nature puts it in the realm of yeti and unicorns)
Founder Of Drug Site Silk Road Says Bitcoin Booms And Busts Won’t Kill His Black Market from Forbes (but do they sell yeti or unicorns?)
Episode 450: Bitcoin Goes To The Moon from NPR
Commerce, trade, exchange of goods and services for BTC — several hundred listings including currency exchanges, internet services, physical products and tourism.

Cryptocurrency in the news: II

Posted on April 16, 2013 by Tim Swanson

Many thanks to Keegan, SK and Vijay for some of the links.

Six Reasons Why Chinese People Will Drive the Next Bull Market in Bitcoin from Quartz (total BS, in China very few of the exchanges are available without a VPN and 99% of the population doesn’t have a VPN).
How I would manipulate the Bitcoin exchange market – and how a “Discrete Double Auction” could stop me from 24/7 Bitcoin Launchpad (put your tinfoil hat on, i think it is botnet owners who DDOS and then after the exchange crashes put in buy/sell orders first)
Bitcoin From an Austro-Libertarian Perspective, Part I by Robert Murphy and Silas Barta (I went to college with Silas and am also friends with Robert; look forward to rest of series)
Exchange rates — Inside the Bitcoin economy from The Economist
Ask HN: Why would a government have created bitcoin? by Paul Graham (doubtful, i think “Satoshi” whoever he is, or whomever they are, really enjoyed Cryptonomicon and were inspired by the real history of how PGP was released…)
OKCupid starts accepting Bitcoin using Coinbase! from Coinbase
Coinsetter to bring leverage and shorting to bitcoin with $500,000 funding round from Coinsetter (clever way to hedge/short, rumored to go live in 1-2 months)
This Pizza Cost $750,000 from Motherboard (wonder if there will be an echo boom in an alt currency like terracoins. doubt “ripple” can quantify (e.g. social capital) something that the chinese have been doing in their heads for millenia (guanxi))
Ounce.me (how much does an ounce of pizza cost in different digital currencies)
Marc Hochstein on bitcoin from Surprisingly Free (the GMU group/Mercatus podcast)
Python Code to Connect to Mt. Gox API by Raffael Danielli (worked with Raffael at American Chamber last year, great guy, very clever)

Great Wall of Numbers

Business Opportunities and Challenges in Emerging Markets

Author Archives: Tim Swanson

Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition XIX

Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition XVIII

Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition XVII

On the ground relevant data and knowledge on the mainland

Stat of the day: Inbound tourism and expats in China

Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition XVI

Cryptocurrency in the news: X

Cryptocurrency in the news: IX

Stat of the day: Consumer spending in China

Stat of the day: Yum! success in China

Cryptocurrency in the news: VIII

Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition XV

Mark DeWeaver: Why China Invests in Windfarms It Can’t Use

Stat of the day: GM car sales in China

Cryptocurrency in the news: VII

Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition XIV

Cryptocurrency in the news: VI

Introducing Matt Garner’s cooking show: 宅男做饭

Cryptocurrency in the news: V

Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition XIII

Cryptocurrency in the news: IV

Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition XII

Stat of the day: internet speeds in China

Cryptocurrency in the news: III

Cryptocurrency in the news: II